Announcement of 2016 election format likely to increase delay risks to cargo transiting between Puntland and Somalia

2016-02-03

The cabinet of the Federal Government of SomaliaSomalia (FGS) approved on 28 January the outcome of the discussions in the most recent National Leaders' Forum (NLF), which selected a format for the upcoming September 2016 national elections.

The discussions were hosted by the president of SomaliaSomalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, and included the presidents of Puntland, Jubbaland, Galmudug, and South-West States, as well as other federal and state-level representatives. The final decision was to allocate 275 seats in the lower house of parliament using the existing 4.5 clan formula, whereby four "major" clans (the Hawiye, Rahanweyn, Diir/Isaaq, and Darood) receive 61 seats each, with "minor" clans sharing the remaining 31 seats, chosen through fixed proportional representation. In the new upper house, 54 seats will be distributed among SomaliaSomalia's existing, emerging, and prospective federal member states - Puntland, Somaliland, Hiraan/Middle Shabelle, Galmudug, Jubbaland, and South-West States.

This decision was the preferred outcome for the FGS, with IHS sources noting that President Mohamoud sees this electoral model as the most likely to keep him in power. Puntland's representatives walked out of the conference before it was completed, and announced that they were rejecting the agreement. If the FGS pushes ahead with this electoral model, Puntland is likely to block FGS access to its territory, in an attempt to delay the election, as well as increasing its military presence on the contested southern border with Galmudug state, a key FGS ally, and on its contested western border with Somaliland. This would increase risks of delays to ground cargo transit. Vessels arriving in Bosaso port from FGS ports such as Mogadishu or Somaliland ports such as Berbera would face increased risks of delays or confiscation of goods. Likewise, flights between FGS territory and Puntland, such as through Bosaso's Bender Qassim International Airport, would likely face delays due to increased security inspections, and potential revocation of permits.